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Geopolitical Trends Recap

December 13, 2018 - On December 11th, the LSTA hosted a webinar, “2018 Geopolitical Trends: What’s Next for the Loan Market … and the World?”, presented by David Chmiel of Global Torchlight.   As we enter the final year of a decade of change, we also mark the end of the 9/11 era in security threat analysis.  Three broad themes were identified: trade, populism, and nation state rivalry.  In this regard, the reemergence of the debate about the merits of trade must be considered in the context of the movement of capital and people.  Fortunately, polls still reveal that trade remains favorably viewed – even gaining support in the past four years - by the general public.  What is surprising, however, is the response of global business executives, the majority of whom support protectionist policies, even citing it as fostering innovation in their own countries.  Furthermore, with many feeling left behind, it’s no surprise that populism is on the rise again.  The implications of the continued populist political volatility and its resultant erosion of public trust and investor uncertainty should be monitored during 2019.  Finally, the rise of nation state rivalry is definitely worth watching.  Companies need to be aware of these trends:   no longer are they immune from being caught up in such geopolitical concerns, and governments around the globe will not hesitate to target companies that are operating contrary to their own foreign policies.  Click here for the replay.

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