The loan market has enjoyed a long period of below-trend default rates. But at some point, the cycle will turn and defaults will return. The question, then, is how will today’s loan vintage perform? Below, we discuss new recovery analysis on covenant lite loans, default stats today (and tomorrow), as well as loan document quality trends thus far in 2018.
Last week, we tiptoed into the issue of leverage levels, incrementals and EBITDA adjustments. This week, we go (a little) further into the weeds, discussing covenant lite default and recovery experiences (with caveats) and capital structure trends. While this is not necessarily a heartening topic, we do end with a modest silver lining.
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