Last month in this space we boldly wrote “there is a silver lining for loans: they appear to be oversold”. And sure enough, following its worst monthly print this year (-0.45% in October) the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (LLI) produced a four-month best 0.6% November return.
November was a solid month in the secondary loan market, with S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (LLI) returning 0.59%. October, however, was a different story. Secondary loan trading volume spiked 19% in October to a six-month high of $64 billion. This followed a two-month stretch where volumes fell below $60 billion per month.
After recording a record high during the first quarter of this year ($212 billion), secondary loan trading volumes have steadily declined. Following second quarter’s 10% drop, third quarter activity fell an additional 14% to $165 billion. Third quarter’s tally was just 2% higher year-over-year. Furthermore, volumes really tapered off during August and September when activity remained below $55 billion per month – the last time that occurred was back in March and April of last year.
After recording a record high during the first quarter of this year ($212 billion), secondary loan trading volumes have steadily declined. Following second quarter’s 10% drop, third quarter activity fell an additional 14% to $165 billion. Third quarter’s tally was just 2% higher year-over-year.
After returning more than 4% during the two-month rally that began the year, the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (LLI) has failed to sustain any meaningful momentum. Since March, monthly returns have flipped from positive to negative while market value returns were positive just twice – the last time being July. In September, despite market value losses that were negative yet again (albeit at just -0.02%), the LLI sported a total return of 0.47%.
This presentation is for the Second Quarter 2019 LSTA Secondary Trading & Settlement Study.
The S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan index (LLI) has returned 5.7% at the half-way point of 2019 – giving way to the best start of a year since the famed loan market rally of 2009. But 2019’s gains have not been just a straight shot higher nor have they outdone those produced by any of the other major asset classes – from equities through treasuries.
After averaging more than $68 billion during each of the previous three months, secondary loan trading volume decreased 10% in May, to an eight-month low of just $61 billion. Moreover, that three-month period had followed three record setting months (November through January), where volumes spiked to an average of $74 billion per month.
This presentation is for the First Quarter 2019 LSTA Secondary Trading & Settlement Study
This presentation is for the Fourth Quarter 2018 LSTA Secondary Trading & Settlement Study
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